Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
