Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
